Geopolitical Futures’ (GPF) annual forecast predicts a major reshuffling on the global geopolitical stage for 2019. A Year on the Edge is your guide on what to expect from political, economic and military developments globally.
The United States is almost 25% of the world’s GDP. What will these predictions mean in the U.S. and internationally for industries, their workforce and investors?
George Friedman, chairman of GPF said, “Presidents don’t make history. History makes presidents. Things like the U.S. government shutdown and the border wall with Mexico must be understood in a broader context because in the end these won’t matter. The larger trends shape history and our lives.”
Europe or Asia will feel a direct impact, but repercussions will be global so you need to know that:
- A decline in living standards will lead to social unrest in Russia.
- China will intensify its suppression of internal dissent and employ modest fiscal stimulus to sustain growth.
- The European Commission and Italy will reach a compromise on Italy’s 2019 budget, but will Italy’s government survive?
- The U.K. will leave the EU with an agreement in place. The compromises the British government will make will also disunite the U.K.
Events in the Middle East impact many countries. Our forecast is that the coalition that formed to push back Iran’sadvances will make its move in 2019. Specifically,
- Iran’s position in Syria and Yemen will weaken.
- Israel will attack Hezbollah in Lebanon.
- Turkey will increase its military presence in Syria.
In Ukraine, Japan, India, Australia, Afghanistan and other countries we predict how upstart rivals and old competitors will have opportunities to challenge the U.S. The key question is how will Washington handle these?
GPF has a very high percentage of correct predictions which is updated every two weeks in our Forecast Tracker in order to improve the model that generated the forecast.
Geopolitical Futures, LLC is an online subscription company that charts the course of the international system through analysis and forecasting at www.geopoliticalfutures.com.